PREPARING FOR GOOD TIMES

Francisco Becerra • Jul 24, 2024

If you had a crystal ball with a high degree of certainty, what would you do now to take advantage of a forward-looking vision?

Following-up on my article titled “High Financing Costs Are Here For a While Longer”, published in 31 May 2024, there are now indications of improving conditions for business owners, CEO’s and CFO’s.


The question arises, what to do now to prepare for that eventuality? In other words, if you had a crystal ball with a high degree of certainty, what would you do now to take advantage of a forward-looking vision?

Graphs That May Serve As A Crystal Ball

The first graph, stitched from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data, points to the source of the constraints that has been directly felt in the daily relationship between business directors and funding sources.


Since early-2022, in response to inflation, we have had a double whammy, involving two adverse events that have joined to make the business environment less favorable: a rise in the Bank Prime Loan Rate (red) and a rise in Bank Loan Tightening Standards (green). In brief, the cost of capital became higher, while the constraints on borrowers became tighter.



The 2023-2024 period contrasts markedly to the two years between 2021 and 2022 where rates were low and standards were loose. The pain is felt worse because we have a fresh memory of the good times.


It is possible to see in the graph that there has been a lowering in the bank tightening standards as inflation is pushed down.


The Possible Good News

The second graph, from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, points to a high probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will cut interest rates by September 18, further improving conditions.


Together these charts indicate that both rates and standards are moving in a direction that is favorable to business owners, CEO’s, CFO’s, and lenders, who will be able to write new business or increase lines of credit.


Two Additional Indicators

Although hard to see in the first chart, 10-year treasury rates are not raising, even when compared to Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond yields. This indicates that large companies, that can, are not running towards bonds as an alternative to corporate loans for capital raises.


Then there is the article by David McCann at CFO.com, who references David Dean, managing director of mergers and acquisitions for WTW, indicating that “financial trends and increasing deal activity suggest a potential return to pre-Covid acquisition levels.”


But How To Prepare?


With this view, I do suggest that now could be a good moment for company owners, CEO’s and CFO’s to start redefining their relationship with their funding source.


Seeing this change coming, now can be a good opportunity to not only lower costs (not just interest rates but also fees), but to also aim at increasing the company’s strategic competitiveness and agility by bringing back those growth plans that were put on hold during the tight conditions.


Why It Is Imperative To Be Done Now?


Historically we have learned that it takes at least two months to find, select a new funding source and go through the approval process until funding. This involves a method for right-matching with a strategic funding partner, not just finding a lender (for example, merchant cash advance operations will have you locked into onerous capital at a blink of an eye).


That process has to be in step with the calendar year. You should not start the process in November with the hopes of having funds in the same year because it is unlikely that a good funding sources will have the appropriate time for the process and likely it will fall into the next calendar year.


If the interest rate drops in mid-September, many companies will then wake-up and start rate hunting, flooding lenders with inquiries and paperwork. If your company starts looking after the rate drop, if not well prepared, likely it will not get funded this year. Those that will get funded will have a competitive advantage in executing their strategies ahead of those that don’t act now.


Time And Focus: The Usual Problems For Business Owners, CEO's and CFO's


Despite obvious pains, costs and limitations, business owners stick with their current lending relationship, missing out on opportunities, because of the friction involved in finding a new strategic funding relationship:


a) It can be a disruption away from their core business;

b) they have been with the lender for X years and it is easier to go along with whats at hand than to start looking afresh;

c) And how do you find someone? Offers of capital arrive every day, but which to choose without making a mistake?


Outsource Now The Search For A Strategic Funding Relationship


CORNER has historically helped drive business growth for our clients by accurately matching them with strategically-beneficial financial services that fit their needs.


We leverage a network of established firms that are searching for companies with a track-record of growth and good leadership with the aim to build mutually beneficial relationships for financial growth.


CORER’s methodology helps avoid many of the pitfalls of searching, while connecting to capital sources that understand business, markets and clients, resulting in the business owner, CEO and CFO having full control over their financial objectives and over your financial relationship at the right time.

Visit our website to learn more: www.CORNERfinance.com Likely we can help your company take advantage of the improving conditions. If you are interested we can have a brief call to trade ideas.


By Francisco Becerra 07 Aug, 2024
When you're standing at the end of a long line to order a beer, as I experienced this past weekend at the Mills River Brewery, you start to notice something interesting. As we inch closer to the front, we instinctively begin to prepare: mentally confirming our beer choice, ensuring our payment method (cash or card) is ready, and getting our parched mouths primed to confidently request that refreshing micro-brewed brown ale. The last thing anyone wants is to fumble at the counter, allowing room for the server be attracted to another patron who is ready. Preparation becomes key to making sure our wait is worthwhile and our thirst is quenched without a hitch (it was). Similarly, as a business owner or CEO, recognizing a pressing need to grab strategic commercial capital under favorable conditions, to stay competitive, it is crucial to be well prepared for a capital raise. Likewise, you can't afford to ignore the preparation needed, despite the day-to-day demands of running your business as the year slips by. As economic conditions improve (better interest rates, relaxed loan constraints), the line for capital will inevitably grow longer. Being ready and positioned for a capital raise ensures your business can seize the best rates and conditions promptly. In both scenarios, preparation is key to achieving satisfaction and success. CORNER can help you with that preparation and raise while you focus on your important core business. 96.8% - I WANT THAT LEVEL OF CERTAINTY! As mentioned in my "EOY Countdown Reminder" article ( https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/august-1st-eoy-countdown-reminder-francisco-becerra-6ozdf/ ), interest rates are coming down. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now shows a 96.8% market probability of a rate hike or cut by 2024-09-18. (It would be nice to have that level of certainty about anything.) Part of the motivation for lowering rates is the criticism associated with the sudden drop of the S&P 500 and the corresponding spike in the CBOE Volatility VIX index. (See graph.) The resulting finger-pointing towards the central bank will likely place additional pressure on lowering rates sooner rather than later. At that time, businesses, whether they realize it or not, will be standing at the end of a long line waiting to order a fresh refinance, extend their credit lines, or find a new lender. CORNER (www.cornerfinance.com)can successfully guide business owners and CEO’s in managing their place in line, even while they focus on your important core business.
By Francisco Becerra 01 Aug, 2024
I remember closing a complex strategic capital transaction on the last business day of the year while traveling on Amtrak from Miami to New York, multiple teams coordinating over a phone-bridge to confirm every detail, contracts, guarantees, signatures—where one error could have derailed and delayed funding until the following year, requiring a complete redo of financial statements and likely all documents. Fortunately we concluded successfully. Don't let that stress be your experience.  With interest rates expected to drop in September and lending constraints easing, business owners, CEOs, and CFOs must act swiftly. To secure optimal financing conditions, consider outsourcing your strategic capital raise. This proactive approach will help navigate busy lenders, technical delays, and avoid rushed processes, ensuring you don't miss out on favorable terms or the opportunity to access capital this year. WHATS GOING ON? WHY THE URGENCY? The Federal Reserve central bank chief Jerome Powell sent a strong signal on July 31, saying that “policymakers may be ready to reduce borrowing costs as soon as their next meeting in September, with recent data adding to their confidence that inflation is coming into line with their 2% target”1 The urgency is that the lowering of rates happens late in the calendar year. Considering typical transaction times, potential delays, and the rush of companies seeking to refinance or secure capital, the window of opportunity is tight. Those who take early initiative and are well-prepared will have the best chance to benefit. As I mentioned in my previous article, PREPARING FOR GOOD TIMES, ( https://www.cornerfinance.com/preparing-for-good-times ) now is a good moment for company owners, CEO’s and CFO’s to start redefining their relationship with their funding source. Seeing this change in rates and conditions can be a good opportunity to lower the cost of capital. This will allow companies to improve their strategic competitiveness and agility while bringing back growth plans that were placed on hold during the tight conditions. The challenge lies in the end-of-year rush as numerous companies seek funding simultaneously. Our good friends, the underwriters at banks and non-banks will likely be swamped with funding requests. Their priority for awarding strategic capital will be companies that act early and come well-prepared. TYPICAL LOAN PROCESSING TIMES Based on our experience, loan transaction times until funding often exceed expectations. Business owners, CEOs, and CFOs underestimate the complexity of the loan application process, especially when tackling it alone, while they also manage core business challenges. Here are the average times to funding for different types of commercial loans. Please note, these times are in business days and do not include the necessary document preparation time prior to entering the market. Generally, larger amounts or more complex guarantees require longer funding times. TERM LOANS Details: Involve detailed financial analysis and collateral evaluation, which can lengthen the process. Due Diligence: 20-45 days - Financial analysis, credit checks, collateral evaluation, and business plan review. Contracts: 15-20 days - Drafting, negotiation, and signing of loan agreements. SBA LOANS Details: They have additional layers of approval from both the SBA and the lender. Multiple sets of eyeballs that each have their own criteria, who have to analyze and process loan documents, which can easily extend the timeline. . Due Diligence: 30-60 days - Includes lender’s review and SBA approval process, requiring detailed financial documentation and business analysis. Contracts: 20-30 days - Includes SBA documentation, loan agreements, and compliance requirements. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LOANS Details: These loans require thorough property appraisals, environmental assessments, and more extensive underwriting. Due Diligence: 40-90 days - Property appraisal, environmental assessments, title searches, and financial analysis. Contracts: 20-30 days - Drafting and negotiation of loan and mortgage documents, plus any additional legal requirements. BUSINESS LINES OF CREDIT Details: May have quicker approval processes as they are often secured by the business’s assets or receivables. Due Diligence: 10-30 days - Review of business financials, credit history, and asset evaluation. Contracts: 10-15 days - Simplified agreements due to the revolving nature of credit lines. EQUIPMENT FINANCING Details: Depends on the type and complexity of the equipment (think, airplane), since the equipment itself serves as collateral. Due Diligence: 10-45 days - Equipment valuation, financial analysis, and credit checks. Contracts: 15-20 days - Includes lease or purchase agreements and loan documents. INVOICE FINANCING Details: Generally quick because it is based on outstanding invoices rather than long-term financial projections. Due Diligence: 5-10 days - Verification of invoices and creditworthiness of the business. Contracts: 5-10 days - Short-term contracts typically outlining the terms of the advance. CONCLUSION Business owners, CEOs, and CFOs aiming to refinance or secure strategic capital this year must act now to ensure the best terms and conditions. With interest rates set to drop and lending constraints easing, lenders will be busy, making timely action crucial. To avoid suboptimal results and unnecessary stress, consider outsourcing the strategic capital sourcing process to start effectively engaging lenders immediately. This approach will allow you to focus on your core business while ensuring a well-managed, competitive capital raise. Take control of your capital sourcing today to secure the best outcomes tomorrow. Please visit our website at www.CORNERfinance.com
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